International Political Dialogue - Heightened danger of war in the southern Caucasus

International Political Dialogue - Heightened danger of war in the southern Caucasus [printable version]

Heightened danger of war in the southern Caucasus
Top-ranking leaders of the political opposition from the southern Caucasus in Brussels

Unless solutions based on international law are found soon, the smouldering conflicts in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and southern Ossetia are threatening the entire southern Caucasus region with destabilisation. This was stressed unanimously by participants from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, attending a three-day seminar held in Brussels by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Liberty.

Concerns were raised especially by a massive arms drive in the region and more and more verbal sabre-rattling. The situation had been additionally aggravated by Russian attempts to use developments in Kosovo as a precedent for shaping its own policies vis-à-vis the territory of Abkhazia, which was not recognized internationally. Opposition representatives from the three countries of the southern Caucasian region accused the governments of their respective countries of exploiting these conflicts for their power political games and of using them for justifying lack of progress in developing democracy and the rule of law. So far in 2008, an election year, the authoritarian forces were clearly advancing.

In a panel discussion with Mr. Peter Semneby, European Union Special Representative for the South Caucasus, participants demanded that international organisations should take a more critical attitude vis-à-vis the governments of the southern Caucasus. Particularly after incidents of obvious ballot rigging, reactions should be swift and using language understandable to the people of the states of the southern Caucasus. When evaluating elections, the representatives of international organisations quite often did not concentrate on issues that really matter. There was, for instance, intensive work going on to prepare electoral legislation. Its use, however, was limited, as there were no institutions capable of implementing such laws later. The counting of votes received insufficient attention. Quite often, a meaningful report by international observers to such elections, providing an adequate description of the situation was available only after several months.

Participants from all three countries concurred in the assessment that a development of the security situation was largely dependent on progress in the fields of democracy and the rule of law. Peace could prevail only if democratic means succeeded in bringing to bear the interests of a majority of the people in stability and economic development.

Mr. Semneby referred to the necessity of permanently improving the tools of European policy and reported on results achieved so far of the European Neighbourhood Policy. What mattered most now was to develop a political culture and to strengthen the rule of law as well as the democratic institutions.

Mr. Michael Emerson, Associate Senior Research Fellow of the Centre for European Policy Studies and Ms. Sabine Freizer, European Programme Director of the International Crisis Group also participated in discussions.

Participants were offered a chance to meet with representatives from NATO, the EU as well as of the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party (ELDR) and of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) groups of the European Parliament. During a debate with Dr. Jorgo Chatzimakis from the ALDE group participants emphasised the strategic relevance of the southern Caucasus as a link between Europe and Asia. They were agreed in emphasising that democratic reforms could only be successful if stable governmental institutions were created in these three countries.

During a series of sessions of working groups participants reached agreement on preparing joint statements on topics such as “observing elections”, “rights of people, citizens and property rights”, “conflict management” and the “arms race”. Additionally, Ms. Federica Sabbati, General Secretary of ELDR encouraged the member parties of ELDR from Azerbaijan and Georgia to submit a draft resolution to the next Congress of ELDR in Stockholm.